Analysis & Opinions
Nigeria’s GDP Decline to 4th in Africa GDP Ranking 2024
Nigeria’s GDP has declined to 4th place among top African countries in 2024.
The country, which until 2023 was Africa’s largest, fell to fourth place after two sharp currency depreciations shrank its GDP by more than 50%. This caused the naira currency to lose roughly 70% of its value against the US Dollar.
However, the country is rebasing its GDP data to capture emerging sectors such as the marine economy, arts, culture, tourism, ICT, e-commerce, and mining.
South Africa, Africa’s most industrialised economy, took the lead with $410.3 billion, followed by Egypt with $347.3 billion.
Algeria came third at $269 billion, confirming its surging hydrocarbon wealth and investment.
Nigeria’s slide to the fourth position at $188.3 billion due to deep macroeconomic imbalances and FX challenges.
Morocco took fifth place, gaining strength from the diversification and stability of its macroeconomy.
East Africa powerhouses Kenya and Ethiopia occupied the sixth and seventh positions.
Top 10 African Countries by GDP in 2024
(Ranked by Nominal GDP, USD Billion)
| Rank | Country | GDP (2024) | Key Sector | Challenges |
| 1 | South Africa 🇿 | $410B | Mining, Finance, & Manufacturing. JSE remains Africa’s top exchange | Energy crisis (load shedding), and unemployment |
| 2 | Egypt | $347.3B | Energy, Suez Canal revenues, tourism, strong industrial growth | High debt (>90%+ of GDP) |
| 3 | Algeria | $269B | Increased EU gas exports post-Russia sanctions | Youth unemployment (30%) |
| 4 | Nigeria | $188.3B | Oil & Gas, Dangote Refinery (650K bpd) | Naira devaluations, inflation (>20%), oil theft |
| 5 | Morocco | $165.8B | Automotive, Renewables, EV battery investments | Water scarcity |
| 6 | Kenya | $131.6B | Agriculture, Tech (“Silicon Savannah” startups) | High borrowing costs |
| 7 | Ethiopia | $117.5B | Agriculture, Textiles | Debt distress |
| 8 | Angola | $113.3B | Diamonds, Oil production rebound | Corruption |
| 9 | Ivory Coast | $94.5B | Agriculture (Cocoa & Cashew Nuts) |
Dependence on Commodity Exports |
| 10 | Ghana | $88.3B | Gold, Cocoa | Currency volatility, debt restructuring |
Why Nigeria Dropped to 4th Place in Africa’s GDP Ranking (2024)
Nigeria declined from Africa’s largest economy to fourth place in 2024, behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria.
One of the leading causes of Nigeria’s GDP decline is the Naira devaluation. Due to Dollar shortages, the official exchange rate crashed from ₦500/1 in 2021 to ₦1,500/1 in 2024. Declining oil exports due to theft and low production led to lower Dollar revenues. The foreign exchange shortages resulted in the devaluation of the Naira and significantly affected businesses that depended on imports, particularly manufacturing. Since the USD is used to measure Nigeria’s GDP, the weaker Naira directly reduced its economic size.
The gradual fall in oil production led to the decline of Nigeria’s GDP.
- Current oil production: 1.4M barrels/day (vs 2M+ in 2019).
- Reasons:
- Crude Theft & Pipeline Vandalism: 400,000+ bpd lost to pipeline vandalism & crude theft.
- Underinvestment: International Oil Companies like ENI, Shell, and ExxonMobil have exited onshore JV operations.
- Result: Oil revenues (80% of Nigeria’s forex) dropped by 40% since 2022.
Inflation surge is another key factor negatively impacting Nigeria’s GDP in 2024. Inflation hit 34.19 in April 2024 due to:
- Insecurity: Banditry in Niger, Kaduna, Benue states.
- Fuel subsidy removal: The federal government’s removal of fuel subsidies in 2024 led to higher transport/logistics costs.
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s rate hikes (18.75% in January to 27.5% in December 2024) failed to curb inflation. This is because Nigeria’s inflation is mainly driven by supply-side shocks rather than demand. As a result, the surge in food, transportation, and fuel prices eroded household purchasing power, ultimately slowing Nigeria’s economic growth.
Countries That Overtook Nigeria
| Rank | Country | GDP | Key Advantage Over Nigeria |
| 1 | South Africa | $410.3B | Stable currency, Strong industrial and service sectors, Suez Canal revenues |
| 2 | Egypt | $347.3B | Suez Canal revenues, Significant investment in infrastructures, and Tourism |
| 3 | Algeria | $269B | Reliable gas exports to Europe |
Key Reasons for the Decline in Nigeria’s GDP
- Currency Collapse: Naira lost 70% of its value (2023-2024).
- Oil Production Decline: Down to 1.4M bpd from 2M+ in 2019.
- Policy Instability: Poor FX management, weak diversification (still oil dependent), poor power generation & distribution, and subsidy removal shocks.
Nigeria’s Current Position
- 2024 Rank: 4th position (from 1st in prior years).
- GDP: $188 billion, down from $510 billion peak in 2014.