Business News
IMF Lowers Nigeria’s 2025 Growth Forecast to 3%
The IMF, on April 22, lowered Nigeria’s 2025 economic growth forecast from 3.2% to 3.0% due to falling crude oil prices and rising global trade tensions.
The Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report was released on April 22 during the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, DC.
In addition, the IMF also projects a 2.7% growth rate for Nigeria in 2026.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also indicated that the outlook for low-income countries is worsening. This is because countries like Nigeria rely heavily on commodity exports.
As such, the IMF noted that crude oil-exporting countries will see a reduction in earnings, which will strain their fiscal positions.
The Fund has warned that the rise in global trade restrictions, including new tariffs from the United States and retaliatory measures from trading partners, is creating significant uncertainty in the global economy.
The possibility of a recession in the United States increases uncertainty, especially for countries with strong trade ties to the United States.
IMF Nigeria Forecast Compared to Other African Economies
According to the IMF, “For sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to decline to 3.8% in 2025 and recover modestly in 2026, lifting to 4.2%.”
To understand Nigeria’s growth outlook, it’s helpful to compare it with other African nations, which are expected to have different growth trajectories in 2025.
| Country | 2025 GDP Growth Forecast | Challenges | Notable Sectors |
| Ethiopia | 6.6% | Conflict, political instability, inflation | Agriculture, Construction, Manufacturing |
| Kenya | 4.8% | Inflation, debt servicing pressures | Agriculture, Tech, Finance |
| Ghana | 4.0% | Currency problems, debt burden, Energy Crisis | Oil & Gas, Agriculture, Mining |
| Egypt | 3.8% | Inflation, public debt, political instability | Energy, Tourism, Infrastructure |
| Nigeria | 3.0% | Inflation, FX instability, oil production decline | Oil & Gas, Agriculture, Services |
| Angola | 2.4% | Declining oil production, debt, inflation | Oil, Agriculture |
| South Africa | 1% | Energy crisis, unemployment, political uncertainty | Mining, Manufacturing, Finance |
Why IMF Revised Nigeria’s Growth Outlook for 2025
The IMF noted that Nigeria faces significant challenges like inflation and falling oil prices.
On April 9, crude oil prices dropped to $59 for the first time since February 2021—lower than Nigeria’s budget estimate of over $75 per barrel. At the same time, crude oil production declined from 1.54 million barrels per day in January to 1.4 million barrels daily in March.
Oil production, including condensates, fell from 1.74 million barrels per day in January to 1.60 million daily in March. Nigeria’s economy is heavily dependent on oil exports, making it vulnerable to changes in global oil prices and production levels.
Despite recent reforms instituted by President Bola Tinubu, Nigeria still faces structural issues such as deficient infrastructure, limited access to finance, and regulatory bottlenecks. These issues are impeding private sector development and foreign investment, which are critical for sustained economic growth.
Implications for Nigeria’s Economy
According to the IMF, Nigeria’s real per capita output will rise by 0.6% in 2025. In other words, Nigeria has not made any substantial progress in boosting income levels.
Such stagnation reflects the reality that economic reforms and growth are not resulting in meaningful welfare improvements in Nigeria.
At the same time, measures to boost revenues remain largely insufficient. These challenges hinder the federal government’s ability to raise funds to invest in key sectors like infrastructure, education, and healthcare that desperately need investments.