Gas
Natural Gas Prices April 14, 2025: US, UK & Europe
Gas prices fell in the United States and rose in Europe on April 14 amid the emerging summer travel season, the ongoing US-China trade war, and concerns about Europe’s gas storage level.
The US natural gas price closed at $3.3/MMBtu on April 14, its lowest in two months, compared with 3.53/MMBtu recorded on April 11. Rising production and mild weather forecasts caused the difference. Average gas output in the Lower 48 US states surged to 106.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in April, up from a monthly record of 106.2 bcfd in March. In addition, production hit a record high of 107.4 bcfd. Furthermore, the warmer-than-usual temperatures are expected to continue through April 29, reducing heating demand.
UK natural gas futures hit 85.37 pence per therm, up from 83.37 recorded on April 11, amid the US-China trade war and concerns over EU gas storage targets. Europe’s gas storage locations ended the winter season nearly two-thirds empty, adding to fears of stockpiling for the coming season.
European natural gas futures topped €34.61/MWh, up from €33.63/MWh recorded on April 11. The slight recovery follows general market optimism after the US temporarily exempted some tech-related Chinese imports, like computers and smartphones, from tariffs, reducing recession concerns that had pressured gas prices.
In addition, milder weather across the European continent is expected to facilitate gas storage injections and lower demand from the power sector. European gas storage remains moderately low following the winter season.
Major Natural Gas Price Benchmarks
Region | Benchmark | Key Features |
United States | Henry Hub (NYMEX) | Reflects supply/demand in North America Tied to US shale gas production & pipeline infrastructure dynamics |
Europe | TTF (Netherlands) | Europe's leading gas benchmark Reflects LNG and pipeline flows from Russia, Norway, and LNG imports |
Asia | JKM (Japan-Korea LNG) | Reflects Asian demand, LNG deliveries to Japan & South Korea |
United Kingdom | NBP (National Balance Point) | Linked to European gas markets Influenced by LNG & North Sea supply Futures |
Other benchmarks include
- Oil-Linked Pricing: Some long-term contracts ( Russia’s Gazprom pipeline gas exports) still use oil-indexed pricing. Gazprom has long preferred long-term contracts and hybrid pricing with spot elements to hedge against price volatility.
- AECO Canada: It is Canada’s benchmark linked to Western Canada’s pipeline gas supply
Key Factors Influencing Natural Gas Prices
Several supply and demand factors influence natural gas prices. Below is a detailed breakdown of key aspects affecting natural gas prices:
Supply Factors
- Production Levels: Qatar, Russia, and US shale gas production heavily influence global supply. Thanks to fracking technology, the US is already the world’s top natural gas producer. Thus, higher gas production by these countries can push prices down due to oversupply.
- Storage Inventories: Natural gas is stored in underground facilities. Thus, high storage levels generally lead to lower prices. At the same time, low storage levels signal scarcity, leading to price surges.
- Imports/Exports: Fluctuations in gas exports via pipelines or LNG from key producers can significantly affect regional prices. For instance, European gas prices soared by 30% in September 2022 following the indefinite shutdown of Russia’s Nord Stream 1 pipeline. The pipeline, which runs under the Baltic Sea to Germany, historically supplied between 50 – 55 BCM/year of gas to Europe. Likewise, rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by Qatar, Australia, and the US can lead to oversupply and lower prices.
Demand
- Electricity Sector Competition: Countries rely on various sources for power generation, including natural gas, nuclear power, coal, and renewable energy like wind and solar. Suppose the prices of coal and renewables increase. In such developments, electricity producers will shift to natural gas. Conversely, if coal or renewable sources become cheaper, demand for gas will fall, resulting in lower gas prices.
- Weather conditions: Weather plays a significant role in influencing natural gas prices. During the summer, there is a massive surge in the demand, especially in Europe & North America, for air conditioning systems. The high demand for electricity to cool homes and industrial plants can increase natural gas prices. At the same time, during the cold winter season, there is increased gas demand, especially across Europe, North America, and East Asia, to heat homes and industries. When chilly weather hits—like snowstorms or Arctic blasts—it can freeze up gas wells. That means less output, slower deliveries, and higher prices. Hurricanes often shut down oil and gas operations temporarily, pushing prices higher.
- Economic Growth: Strong global economic growth, especially in the US, China, Japan, South Korea, and the EU, boosts industrial demand for natural gas. The manufacturing sector (chemicals, automotive, petrochemicals) depends heavily on gas for feedstock and power generation. However, a weak global economic outlook reduces gas demand, and thus, prices drop.
Geopolitics
- Geopolitical tensions, such as the 2023-2025 Middle East Crisis and the 2022-2025 Russia-Ukraine war, negatively impact gas prices. These tensions disrupt pipeline gas or LNG supplies from producing countries (Russia, Qatar, Australia) to Europe, causing price spikes.
- Russia-Ukraine War: Sanctions on Russian gas disrupted gas supplies to Europe, causing price surges.
- Middle East Conflicts: The tensions in the Middle East impact LNG exporters like Qatar. Following the Houthi Rebel attacks on commercial shipping passing along the Red Sea, Qatar has detoured its LNG tankers towards the Cape of Good Hope (Southern Africa), a much longer route to export LNG to its European clients.